Threat of Islamic Militant Comeback in Mali Threatening French Withdrawal Plan

The French may not be leaving
Mali as quickly as they would like.

French President
Francois Hollande had said that he wants the number of French
troops in Mali to be cut to 1,000 by December from the roughly
4,000 troops that are there now. United Nations Secretary-General

Ban Ki-moon has said that a UN peacekeeping force could be made
up of African soldiers that are already assisting Malian and French
forces.

However, despite plans for a UN peacekeeping force recent
attacks by Islamic militants and the political situation in Mali
mean that the French troop reduction could be delayed.

From
Reuters:

Last weekend Islamist militants launched their second attack on
Timbuktu in a fortnight, shortly after French President Francois
Hollande insisted the elections must take place as scheduled and
unveiled the plan to slash troop numbers.

Launched in January, the French-led offensive quickly succeeded
in pushing a mix of Islamists out of their northern strongholds and
remote mountain bases, hitting the local leadership of the al
Qaeda-linked groups.

But new clashes have followed a handful of suicide attacks and
raids on towns won back from the rebels, underscoring the task of
securing the country as France prepares
to hand over to the Malian army and a 7,000-strong regional African
force.

The nightmare scenario is that of a repeat of the Afghan war,
where Taliban insurgents have prevented a full pull-out of NATO-led
troops after a 13-year conflict that has cost tens of thousands of
lives.

While it is understandable that the French would like to avoid
their own Afghan war there is the possibility that Islamic
militants will return to northern Mali after the number of French
soldiers is reduced. It is easy to see why those living in northern
Mali who experienced the rule of Islamic militants would not be
reassured by a mere 1,000 French troops, a U.N. peacekeeping force,
and a disorganized Malian military that is facing accusations of

human rights violations.

As well as the possibility of Islamic militants returning there
is also the ongoing issue of
slavery to worry about, with some Tuaregs who are seeking
independence in northern Mali but who have distanced themselves
from Islamic militants continuing the practice of slavery. Despite
the French-led intervention 250,000 people still live in conditions
of slavery in Mali.

From
The Guardian:

The recent French intervention in Mali does seem to be paying
some security dividends with most of the Islamist fighters driven
out of the main urban areas. But many slaves and ex-slaves say they
still do not feel safe, since a new Tuareg group, the Islamic
Movement for Azawad, is in control of the remote town of
Kidal. 

The unfortunate reality for the French government is that if
they wish to leave Mali in a safer, more secure, and politically
stable situation they may have to stay longer than they initially
anticipated, which will almost certainly have effects on the
government’s popularity in France.

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Hollande Revises Schedule for Withdrawal From Mali, Says Objectives Achieved

French President Francois Hollande has said that
only 1,000 French troops will remain in Mali by the end of the
year. Roughly 4,000 French troops entered Mali in January at the
invitation of the Malian government to expel Islamic militants that
had taken over much of northern Mali.

Throughout the French-led intervention in Mali French officials
have
revised their schedule for withdrawal. The French government is
keen for African forces in Mali to begin taking on more missions.
United Nations Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon recently said that he would like the African forces
to form a peacekeeping force and for another force to be put
together that would be engaged in fighting Islamic militants.
Hollande said that the remaining French troops would
probably be part of the peacekeeping force.

While the French-led intervention has pushed Islamic militants
out of most of their strongholds the political situation in Mali
remains tenuous.

The Tuareg group the National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad (NMLA), which originally fought with Islamist fighters
against the Malian government,
appointed its own governor for the Kidal region this week.
Malian soldiers, who have been accused of abuses against
Tuaregs and Arabs, have not been welcomed in some of
the areas previously controlled by Islamic militants.

Hollande has said that he wants the Malian election to be held
in July, though the French will not be backing any particular
candidate. However, the political instability in parts of the
country shows that although the Islamic militants may be gone the
political situation is not stable. From
UPI:

French and Malian forces have since liberated key northern
cities like Timbuktu and Gao.

However, local militia member Moussa Boureima Yoro told France
24 there's no formal political presence in Gao.

"How can they ask us to go and vote? For who? And what for? It's
clear we represent nothing in Malian politics," he said. "So we,
alone, need to make our own destiny and transform this town."

The French report notes Gao in February became the first city in
Mali to experience a suicide bombing. Residents told the newspaper
they haven't seen a politician from the capital since the French
intervention.

The worst of the fighting against Islamic militants may well be
over, but the political struggle ahead could very well present
plenty of additional problems for French and Malian
forces. 

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